COVID19 Impacts housing sales

COVID-19 affected the properties market in India adversely during the past few months. In 2020, the top 60 cities’ housing was 2.62 lakh units is down by 31% from 2019 when they sold 3.77 lakh units. NCR witnessed the maximum drop in sales by 45% and Bengaluru by 39%.

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MMR had a decline of 29% in annual unit sales and 32% in stock value during 2020. MMR contributed 33% of the value of sales done by the tier 1 cities in 2020. Pune witnessed the least drop in sales by 22% during 2020.

NCR sales dropped by 45% from 47,890 units in CY2019 to 26,344 units in CY2020, the value of sales went down from Rs 31,309 crore to RS.17,145 crore.

Tier I cities had recorded 52,727 units in the December quarter,25% growth compared to last quarter when the sales were 42,327 units. Sales across tier I cities decreased by 24%.

The quarter-on-quarter sales across the Tier I cities have increased by 25%. Sales witnessed a maximum recovery in MMR by 46%, Hyderabad 31%, Pune 26%, and Ahmedabad 25%.

For the year-on-year sales, overall sales across tier I cities decreased by 24 percent. sales in Chennai witnessed a minimum declination of 4% on YoY. The maximum decline was observed in NCR 48%, Bengaluru 40%, Kolkata 25%, Ahmedabad 23%.

Unsold units remained stable on a QOQ basis, top eight cities stand at 926,824 units. It decreased the maximum in Kolkata by -4% QOQ and -13% YoY basis. In tier I cities, months inventory reduced by 20% QOQ but increased by 25%YoY, lowest in Hyderabad at 29 months, highest in Chennai at 89 months.

The unsold stock reduced by 6% in terms of units and 7% in value.

In the December 2020 quarter, the total unsold inventory in the primary market was 12.52 lakh units valuing Rs 8.65 lakh crore. To dispose of this inventory valuing 8.65 lakh crore, it will take 60 months. Considering 1.72 lakh crore of the value of sale registered in CY 2020. In 2019, the months’ inventory was 45 months.

On a QOQ basis, consolidated tier 1 cities unsold stock marginally declined in Q3 FY 20-21. The unsold stock increased in Chennai and Hyderabad by 1%, remained stagnant in Bengaluru, MMR and Pune.

Cities witnessing a drop in unsold stock: Ahmedabad 4%, Kolkata 4%, and NCR 1%.

The YOY unsold stock in Tier I cities decreased by 5% in December 2020. Kolkata has maximum declination by 13%, NCR 10%, Ahmedabad 8%, Hyderabad 7%, Bengaluru 5%, Pune 3%.

The QOQ months’ inventory decreased by 20% across Tier I cities and is standing at 53 months in December 2020. Inventory overhang of Ahmedabad and Hyderabad are lowest at 32 and 29 months. Months inventory decreased by 32% in MMR, Hyderabad 23%, Ahmedabad 23%, Pune 21%, Bengaluru 16%, Chennai and Kolkata 8% and the least at NCR 1%.

As for YoY, the overall months inventory increased by 25% on a YoY basis. It increased by 72% in NCR, followed by Bengaluru 60%, Ahmedabad 19%, Kolkata and MMR 16%. Months’ inventory increased least in Pune by 8 percent, Hyderabad 7%,Chennai 4%.

In the third quarter of FY 20-21, the weighted average price across Tier I remained stagnant.

Prices remained unchanged in Ahmedabad, Hyderabad, MMR, NCR, and Pune.

Prices in Bengaluru, Chennai, and Kolkata were reduced marginally by 1%. YoY Weighted average price across Tier I cities also remained unchanged compared to 2019. Hyderabad, Ahmedabad, and Chennai exhibited an increase by 2%. Prices dipped in MMR- Kolkata 2%, Bengaluru 1%. NCR remaining stagnant.

Source: Residential Real Estate Market Q3 2020-2021 by Liases Foras

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Krishna Rath is a SEBI Registered Investment Adviser, and since 2015 has been educating netizens on investments and insurance. Krishna is a fee only SEBI RIA and is Odisha's first SEBI RIA. With background in IT, Krishna is changing the advisory space with new innovations in AdvisoryTech.

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