Last week, Nifty had a negative bias and could not move out of the Pivot base line on the hourly charts. We had recommended a sell all the week, which should have yielded profit overall. On Friday, towards the end of the market trading day, Nifty seems to have got some steam and raced ahead. The Nifty had an uptrend starting end of March at around 11450 levels all the way to 11640. Since then, hindsight says, that the market has been moving around a range. This is clear from the fast and slow moving averages crossing each other every other day. Our assumption that 11550 levels could be reached also came true, and that acted as a good support. The trend now is that with the Willians %R, the indicator that is useful in rangebound market shows a dip below the high zone, ie an upward trend has not yet resumed However, both MACD and moving averages, show the emergence of an uptrend.
This week on Nifty
On Monday, 15th April, we need a trend to emerge. If the prices move beyond 11685 or 11700 levels, then it is a clear buy call. If the prices don’t move up, and you see that the willian %R is showing signs of going down further, then short when the prices breach the 9 period moving averages on the hourly chart.
The key to the 4 day week market, (Friday being holiday), is to check if the range bound market movement continues or not, or if the market starts showing signs of nervousness on account of the election.
Sell if prices fall below the 9 period moving average, keeping pivot base as stop loss. Target Support levels on Pivot
Buy if market zooms above 11700 levels.
This Week on Bank Nifty
Bank Nifty looks slightly weaker than the Nifty and could fall down to the 29680 levels if the 9 EMA are broken. However, if the prices rise and go above 30000, then the call is a buy. Keep the stop loss as 30,000 as this happens to be a number that most will have in mind.
Sell if the prices fall below 9 EMA target 29700 with a stop loss of 9 EMA + ~50 points.
Buy above 30,000 levels target 30095
Warning: Dealing with Futures and Options is considered highly risky and there is all possibility of losing the entire capital in a single day. The recommendations provided here are only for those who understand the risks of F&O. You must undergo a risk profiling before taking positions in F&O. Proper risk management – ie stop losses and money management is more important than just technical analysis.
All charts are screenshots from Zerodha, which is one of the best discount brokerage firms! Awesome tools in it.